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M&A and Artificial Intelligence: new valuation and investment criteria
The technology and investment market is in a constant cycle of transformation. While just a few years ago the global ecosystem celebrated astronomical funding rounds based on promises of digitalization and metaverse, the current scenario demands much more practicality, operational efficiency, and, above all, the real generation of value.
In this dense and analytical article, we will delve into the inner workings of the mergers, acquisitions (M&A), and technology investment market. The content is based on valuable insights from a leading panel in the tech ecosystem: Bruno Salari (M&A at Skyone) and Kaique Vega (investment and investor relations specialist at Skyone).
Get ready to understand the new valuation, why Corporate Venture Capital (CVC) is reshaping itself, the role of AI infrastructures, and how human talent has become the most valuable asset in the financial market.
1. The pendulum of valuations: from irrationality to the reality of high interest rates
Over the past six years, the global market has experienced extreme fluctuations. During the height of the pandemic (2020–2021), the massive injection of liquidity and near-zero global interest rates inflated the capital market. Unicorns valued using metrics purely based on revenue multiples multiplied.
Today, the macroeconomic scenario is completely different. With high real interest rates (such as the Selic rate at levels of 15% in Brazil), the cost of capital has risen sharply.
The inflexible mathematics of discounted cash flow
As Bruno Salari accurately points out :
“People perform valuations in various ways, but what drives valuation is nothing more than discounted cash flow. Valuation is always based on how much cash a company will generate, from now to infinity, discounting that at a minimum rate of return that I require to invest given the risk.”
When the economy's basic interest rate is high, the risk premium required to invest in a technology startup needs to be proportionally much higher (reaching discount rates of 25% to 30%). By bringing future cash flows to present value under this aggressive discount rate, the valuation plummets.
This change creates a mismatch of expectations between founders and buyers. As Kaique Vega:
"Nowadays, if you talk to an entrepreneur, they still have their head in the past. They remember that back then, valuation was five or six times revenue. Today, if we were to make a bid, it would be three or four times less than what they would have received back then."
| 📈 2021 Scenario (Low Interest Rates) ➔ | Low Discount Rate | ➔ Inflated Valuations (Revenue Multiples) |
| 📉 2026 Scenario (High Interest Rates) ➔ | High Discount Rate | Realistic Valuations (Focus on Cash Flow Generation) |
2. The reconfiguration of CVCs and the new dynamics of venture capital
Given this scenario of expensive capital, the phenomenon of Corporate Venture Capital (CVC), the investment arms of large corporations in innovative startups, has also changed pace.
During boom times, large companies created CVC funds focused on seeking rapid external disruption. Currently, with efficiency and productivity at the heart of corporate strategy, investments have become much more selective.
The fall in construction costs and the focus on scale
A solid thesis discussed in the panel is that investment purely focused on early product development (Venture Building) has lost ground. Thanks to cloud computing, low-codeand no-code , and the revolutionary advancement of Vibe Coding (AI-assisted programming), creating a product from scratch has become extremely inexpensive.
The technical barrier to entry has crumbled. Consequently, the true market value no longer lies in building the basic product, but rather in scaling the solution commercially. If a startup doesn't bring with it a market, reach, established customers, or mature Go-To-Market strategies , it will hardly justify a strategic investment.
3. The Acqui-hiring phenomenon : why is human talent worth billions?
In a world where artificial intelligence can replicate code, create integrations, and simulate entire software architectures in minutes, a crucial question arises: what can't AI copy yet?
The answer is simple: people and their ability to contextualize.
This factor explains the rise of Acqui-hiring (acquisitions of companies primarily focused on absorbing their technical and specialist talent). In the global AI and cybersecurity ecosystem, major players are paying billion-dollar valuations for companies with the central goal of hiring specific data scientists or highly specialized teams.
Kaique Vega details this strategic dynamic:
“For strategic players, when considering acquiring companies, there are scenarios where acqui-hiring makes a lot of sense. Sometimes, that talent pool can add something that the internal team doesn't have today, or the team has a gap in specific certifications, for example, in the cybersecurity sector.”
Instead of spending years structuring, training, and certifying an internal team from scratch to work on complex information security or data science fronts, companies are making acquisitions focused on human capital to accelerate cash generation in present value.
4. The AI ecosystem and infrastructure challenges
Unlike the metaverse cycle, Artificial Intelligence has proven to be a transformative technology that is here to stay and redefine corporate productivity. However, high-performance AI requires a robust foundation that companies often neglect: infrastructure.
- Computing power and GPUs: Advanced Language Models (LLMs) require robust data centers and specialized semiconductors (such as those from Nvidia).
- The investment race: tech giants (hyperscalers) are investing hundreds of billions of dollars globally in expanding physical infrastructure and acquiring stakes in programming language companies to secure technical sovereignty.
- The energy challenge: AI is intensive in electricity consumption, making clean energy infrastructure a priority to support global data centers.
The answer lies in the application layer: Skyone Studio
For the vast majority of companies, attempting to build or train fundamental AI models from scratch is an expensive and inefficient strategy. The main driver of value creation and innovation lies in the application layer, that is, in how you connect AI to real business problems using your data securely.
This is where platforms like Skyone Studio make a difference. Skyone Studio integrates in a unified way:
- iPaaS (Smart Integration): Connecting over 400 systems (ERPs, CRMs) and automating workflows without the need for complex programming.
- Lakehouse (Data Management): Centralizing and structuring raw data to feed BI tools and real-time analytics.
- AI Agents: Building customized autonomous agents and intelligent workflows capable of planning and executing actions based on private data.
5. Practical hacks for large-scale projects: how experts use AI
To conclude the discussions focused on real productivity, participants shared their small personal hacks that generate significant operational results in their daily work:
“I use GPTs quite a bit in my day-to-day professional life, which is focused on strategy. When I'm in the middle of a difficult negotiation, I give all the context in a very detailed prompt and ask: 'What are the potential strategies I can take? Emotionally, which direction is the other side indicating?'. This works as an excellent strategic mental sparring session.”
AI as a Strategic Sparring Partner by Bruno Salari
Human relationships and accelerated prospecting
In the M&A ecosystem, dealing with founders requires sensitivity. Kaique uses generative AI to calibrate the tone of interpersonal interactions, refining approaches, follow-up emails , and initial engagement with potential sellers. On the operational side, he uses intelligent tools to map qualified B2B lead lists based on website traffic, estimated revenue, and organizational structures, reducing hours of manual Google searches to just a few minutes.
Conclusion: technology empowers, humans decide
The era of Artificial Intelligence and cloud computing is not meant to replace human judgment, but rather to maximize our ability to execute. Whether it's adjusting the infrastructure of a legacy ERP system via the cloud at Skyone, or orchestrating multiple AI agents at Skyone Studio, sustainable competitive differentiation will continue to be shaped by resilient, consistent people focused on corporate governance.
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If you want to hear the complete behind-the-scenes stories of investment, the cyclical crises of the financial market, and more details on how the leading technology experts envision the future of business, don't waste any time!
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